Jan Salecker

Short description of research activities within my PhD project (funded by the deutsche Bundesstiftung Umwelt, DBU):

The endangered European Black Poplar is a diecious riparian pioneer tree species. Its natural populations have few individuals and are generally scarce in Germany. Different management approaches are carried out to improve
black poplar metapopulation persistence. However, it often remains unclear how effective these management actions are in terms of protecting black poplar and enhancing the metapopulation viability. Based upon existing knowledge, we have developed the individual-based simulation model POPLAR to study the population dynamics of black poplar metapopulations on different landscapes under varying river dynamics.
The model is also suited to study the interactions between poplar populations and the environment. Applications of our new metapopulation model POPLAR will contribute to advancing ecological knowledge about metapopulation dynamics in riverine areas, about black poplar conservation and about diecious species in general.

Short description of research activities in CRC 990:

My main task within the subproject B10 is the ongoing development and analysis of our integrated ecological-economic land-use change model "Efforts-ABM". The land-use change model in its current form, consists of a socio-economic and an ecological submodel. Within the socio-economic submodel, households make land use decisions by evaluating alternative management options. These decisions indirectly affect the ecological functions, which are part of the ecological submodel.

The model rules and parameterization are mainly based on the results from other sub-projects within the CRC 990. New results and data from other groups will help us to further refine the Efforts-ABM. Model development will focus on the ecological submodel to include additional ecological functions besides carbon storage. Adding heterogenous plant and animal species distributions of different land use types and water quality and water availability will enhance the possibilities to anlayse trade-offs between socio-economic functions and ecological functions.

Besides model development, we perform analyses to understand the interactions and mechanisms of the model system. A sensitivity analysis will be conducted, to identify factors with large impact on the model outputs.

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