CeMig Lecture
German Caruso "Spillover Effects of the Venezuelan Crisis: Migration Impacts in Colombia "
In the wake of the Venezuelan crisis, Colombian migrants are gradually returning to their place of birth. Since 2016, however, there has been a massive spike of immigration to Colombia attributable to inflows of the Venezuelan-born. Using high-frequency administrative data, we estimate the impacts of the recent labor supply shock-driven by the economic predicament in Venezuela-on the employment, income, and poverty outcomes of native Colombians. We employ an instrumental variables approach to account for the selection of immigrants into locations with more or less desirable employment conditions and amenities. Conservative estimates indicate a 1-percent increase in immigration from Venezuela causes a 3-percent average wage decline in host communities. Focusing on the immigration of the Venezuelan-born alone, wage effects rise to 5 percent, increasing poverty rates 2 percentage points. A dual-pronged approach is warranted to promote the economic assimilation of Venezuelans while protecting the job securitiy of Colombians.
10. July, 16.15 - 17.45, VG 4.102
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