The dynamics in the transformation of smallholders’ land-use systems in Jambi province continue at unprecedented pace. Still, the heterogeneity in economic and environmental outcomes, power relations, and value chain functioning lead to large differences in the net effects on household incomes and environmental outcomes. Furthermore, results from Phases 1 and 2 indicate that there is considerable variation among the traders in both oil palm and rubber value chains. Only about a third of the traders from the first survey round has been continuously active throughout the years; both exits and entries of traders are common, in addition to switches in the product focus (i.e., going from rubber trading to trading in fresh fruit bunches). Possible determinants of these developments include differing price trends for rubber and palm oil, as well as structural and institutional changes, including certification requirements.
In work package 1, the existing plot level data from the first three rounds will be updated once more, and will be used to conduct a total resource productivity growth decomposition. We will decompose the observed rates of change into efficiency change, technical change, and structural change (scale and scope) related components.
In work package 2, the results on value chain for palm oil and rubber will be expanded and synthesized. The analysis will be based on the three rounds of data collection (already collected in Phases 1 and 2), and will be complemented by a fourth round that will be conducted in Phase 3. The dynamics in the functioning of these value chains will hence be the core of the synthesis that will not only focus on product but also on the input markets, in particular the access to capital through credit by matching household data and small-scale trader data. For rubber, alternative marketing channels will be analysed with respect to their potential for limiting the abuse of existing market power, e.g., auction markets, or direct marketing.