Division of Agronomy

Snowmelt risk telecouplings for irrigated agriculture - Article in Nature Climate Change

31 October 2022: Climate change is altering the timing and magnitude of snowmelt, which may either directly or indirectly via global trade affect agriculture and livelihoods dependent on snowmelt.

In an article published today in Nature Climate Change global patterns of snowmelt and agricultural water uses are analyzed together with global trade flows of agricultural products to identify regions and crops most dependent on snowmelt water resources at the location of crop production and at the location of the consumption of the products.

We estimate that 16% of snowmelt used for irrigation is for agricultural products traded globally, of which over 70% is from five countries. Globally, we observe a prodigious snowmelt dependence and risk diffusion, with particularly evident importing of products at risk in western Europe. In Germany and the UK, local fraction of surface-water-irrigated agriculture supply exposed to snowmelt risks could increase from negligible to 16% and 10%, respectively, under a 2 °C warming. For Germany, the origin of the production at risk is Spain and Italy (fruits, vegetables and maize) and Pakistan, India and China (rice products).

The Division Agronomy contributed simulation results for crop specific monthly irrigation water requirements at global scale to the study and collaborated with research teams in the United States and China.

Link to the article in Nature Climate Change
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