Financial Crisis and Capital Market Forecasts - Evaluation of Financial Market Forecasts in Times of Stress
Since investment decisions are subject to a substantial amount of risk, capital market forecasts for exchange rates, stock prices as well as interest rates serve as an important resource for decision makers. In times of financial stress uncertainty rises what makes the accuracy of forecasts even more important. Because of that the usefulness of professional analysts? predictions has to be empirically evaluated especially in times of financial as well as economic stress. In the context of the global financial crisis substantial changes in the long term relationship between financial market forecasts and the actual movement of financial time series became evident. These structural breaks also are a result of changing parameters in the fields of monetary policy as well as investment behavior (e.g. flight-to-quality-effects and policy of extremely low interest rates).
Period of Dissertation