Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling


Our goal is to conduct research and research-oriented training to further the understanding of the functioning of major tropical plant production systems in a changing environment. Environmental changes comprise the big challenges agricultural systems are increasingly facing in the future in the different regions in the tropics and sub-tropics: water scarcity, soil nutrient depletion, soil loss, more severe adverse weather events, enhanced ozone concentrations and climate change. Last, but not least, in collaboration with other disciplines we conduct quantitative research on the various dimensions of food security at different scales.

Research priorities - Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling
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Key publications:

technological innovations

Hoffmann, M.P., et al. (2016). Assessing the Potential for Zone-Specific Management of Cereals in Low-Rainfall South-Eastern Australia: Combining On-Farm Results and Simulation Analysis Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science n/a-n/a,

Kassie, B.T., et al. (2014). Climate-induced yield variability and yield gaps of maize (Zea mays L.) in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia Field Crops Research 160, 41-53.

climate risks

Asseng, S., et al. (2015). Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production Nature Climate Change 5, 143-147.

Rötter, R.P., et al. (2013). Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change Ecology and Ecolution 3, 4197-4214.

Trnka, M., et al. (2014). Adverse weather conditions for wheat production in Europe will become more frequent with climate change Nature Climate Change 4, 637-643.

climate adaptation and mitigation

Kahiluoto, H., et al. (2014). Cultivating resilience by empirically revealing response diversity Global Environmental Change 25, 186-193.

Rötter, R.P., et al. (2015). Use of crop simulation modelling to aid ideotype design of future cereal cultivars Journal of Experimental Botany 66, 3463-3476.

model development / experimentation

de Wit, A., et al. (2015). WOFOST developer's response to article by Stella et al. Environmental Modelling & Software 59, 44-58.

Hoffmann, M.P., et al. (2014). Simulating potential growth and yield in oil palm with PALMSIM: Model description, evaluation and application Agricultural Systems 131, 1-10.

Rötter, R.P., et al. (2011). Crop–climate models need an overhaul Nature Climate Change 1, 175-177.


Rötter, R.P., et al. (2014). Robust uncertainty Nature Climate Change 4, 251-252.

Wallach, D., et al. (2016). Estimating model prediction error: Should you treat predictions as fixed or random? Environmental Modelling & Software 84, 529-539.

integrated analysis

Ewert, F., et al. (2015). Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change Environmental Modelling & Software 72, 287-303.

Liu, X., et al. (2016). Dynamic economic modelling of crop rotations with farm management practices under future pest pressure Agricultural Systems 144, 65-76.

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