4: Economic modelling and assessment of different scenarios and risk management options for agriculture in Limpopo

The aim of workpackage 4 is to investigate the effects of present and future agri-relevant risks on the production activities and the economic performance of different farm types in the Limpopo region. On the basis of this, farm type specific and spatially explicit risk management options will be developed and assessed regarding their effectiveness under different land use management and policy scenarios. Based on survey data, the biophysical results from the workpackages 1 and 3 as well as extended stakeholder engagements, this subproject will address the following concrete research questions:

1. What is the status quo of the agricultural sector in the Limpopo province with regard to farm structures, farm types, land-use options, agri-relevant risks, risk exposure and risk management options of farms?

2. How efficient are the different farm types in Limpopo and to what degree is the presence of agri-relevant risks the reason for potential deviations from their efficiency optimum?

3. Can risk management options be developed that support farmers in improving their long-term efficiency and/or resilience under different land use management scenarios?

4. How can the long-term agricultural development in the Limpopo region be modeled under explicit consideration of competition, agri-relevant risks and different policy options at both farm and regional level?

5. How can the effectiveness of different policy options to promote the potential land use management scenarios and risk agricultural risk management be measured and, through this, spatially explicit policy implications derived?